This article reflects my personal views, based solely on publicly available information reported in the media. It does not represent the position of any institution I have worked with in the past or currently.
1. Strategic Pricing or Tactical Pressure? Understanding the F-35 Cost Increase
In recent weeks, questions have emerged around the apparent increase in the cost of Switzerland’s procurement of 36 F-35A fighter jets from the U.S. defense contractor Lockheed Martin. According to initial figures, Switzerland’s acquisition was set at approximately 6 billion CHF. Yet, more recent estimates—though not officially confirmed—suggest significant deviations from this figure. While cost overruns are not uncommon in military procurement, the magnitude and timing of the increase deserve closer scrutiny.
There are plausible explanations. The official justification from U.S. sources cites inflation, supply chain disruptions, and evolving defense requirements. However, such elements are typically accounted for in contracts of this scale and complexity. A fixed-price clause or price adjustment formula is usually embedded to protect both sides from volatile externalities (GAO, 2022). Therefore, a unilateral price increase raises questions about the underlying negotiation dynamics.
Was the initial offer strategically “lowballed” to outperform European competitors such as the Eurofighter Typhoon or Dassault Rafale? This approach, known in procurement strategy as “penetration pricing,” has been used historically to gain market entry and later adjusted through amendments or complementary costs (Yukins, 2010).
Alternatively, could this be a form of economic leverage, a maneuver within the broader scope of U.S.–Swiss trade diplomacy? The U.S. government has previously used defense procurement as an instrument of influence in bilateral relations, notably with Turkey and South Korea (Congressional Research Service, 2023). In this light, the price increase may not merely reflect commercial realities but rather a shift in political positioning.
2. What Can Switzerland Do? Lessons from Igor Ryzov and Strategic Alternatives
Negotiating with a counterpart that applies overwhelming pressure—what Igor Ryzov characterizes as the “Tank” style—requires both tactical patience and strategic creativity. The classic error when facing a “Tank” is to argue over facts or fairness. Instead, negotiators must change the terrain of the conversation.
The first step is to assess alternatives. Could Switzerland follow the example of Portugal, which in March 2025 publicly reconsidered its planned F-35 purchase due to uncertainty surrounding U.S. policy under President Trump? Portugal’s Defense Minister Nuno Melo made headlines when he stated, “We cannot ignore the geopolitical environment… the predictability of our allies is a greater asset to take into account” (Politico, 2025). While terminating the F-35 contract is not a desirable option for Switzerland—given potential penalties and long-term geopolitical repercussions—quantifying the cost of exiting the deal is essential. Only by putting a price tag on withdrawal can Swiss negotiators regain leverage.
Secondly, Switzerland could appeal to shared principles, rather than adversarial positions. A possible pathway lies in identifying two mutually acceptable criteria: (1) Lockheed Martin should be allowed a reasonable margin on the production of the aircraft; and (2) Switzerland must retain credibility, both domestically and internationally, for managing this negotiation in a responsible and sovereign manner.
By reframing the issue as a matter of principle—profitability and dignity—rather than price alone, Swiss negotiators can open space for creative concessions. Could the U.S. offer offsets or expanded trade cooperation in lieu of cost reductions? Could joint innovation or aerospace investment programs provide added value to both parties? These are avenues that allow face-saving and tangible results.
3. Why Now? The Role of Timing and Political Responsibility
The timing of this controversy is not coincidental. Since April 1st, 2025, Switzerland has a new Federal Councillor heading the Department of Defence, Civil Protection and Sport. A newly appointed official often seeks to clarify, redefine, or distance themselves from their predecessor’s decisions—especially on high-cost, high-visibility programs.
Raising concerns about the cost increase now serves several strategic functions. It demonstrates vigilance to Swiss taxpayers, signals a willingness to question irregularities, and potentially provides leverage to renegotiate. Importantly, it also frames the current leadership as acting in good faith and due diligence, should further challenges emerge.
In parallel, the international defense environment is becoming increasingly fluid. With NATO strengthening its position in Eastern Europe and rising geopolitical tensions in the Indo-Pacific, supplier nations like the U.S. are in a position to demand more flexibility from buyers. Switzerland, as a non-NATO country with a tradition of neutrality, finds itself in a delicate position. While military modernization is necessary, the country must preserve its autonomy and diplomatic credibility.
Conclusion
Switzerland’s purchase of F-35 jets is not just a transaction—it is a negotiation of identity, alliances, and strategy. The U.S. may be applying pressure not solely for commercial reasons but as part of a broader diplomatic signal. Switzerland, in turn, must respond not with confrontation, but with principled negotiation.
By quantifying its alternatives, appealing to shared values, and using timing as a strategic asset, Switzerland can uphold its interests while contributing constructively to its transatlantic relations.
Sources:
Government Accountability Office (GAO). (2022). F-35 Joint Strike Fighter: Cost Growth and Schedule Delays.
Yukins, C. R. (2010). “Post-Award Contract Modifications and the Risk of Abuse in Defense Procurement.” Public Contract Law Journal.
Congressional Research Service. (2023). U.S. Defense Sales and Foreign Policy: Recent Trends and Impacts.
Ryzov, I. (2018). The Art of Tough Negotiations.
Politico EU. (2025, March 14). Portugal rules out buying F-35s because of Trump.
Reuters. (2025, March 15). Portugal backs away from F-35 purchase amid NATO concerns.
Constantin Papadopoulos is a negotiation expert, sales trainer, and founder of Snipers.sale, a consultancy helping B2B teams turn conversations into commitments. He has trained hundreds of professionals across industries to close complex deals with clarity, structure, and style.
He is the author of Negotiating with Style: How a Tie, Science, and Strategy Close Bigger Deals — a book that blends personal stories, research-backed techniques, and battle-tested sales strategies.
In it, he explores how confidence, preparation, and a few well-placed questions can outperform raw power or charm.
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